Table 4

Description of models to predict risk of mortality at several time points and their predictive ability in patients diagnosed with or without ACLF in the CANONIC (discovery set) and the PREDICT (validation set) study cohorts

Model	C-index
Model	At 7 days	At 14 days	At 28 days	At 60 days	At 90 days
AD-ACLF patients
Discovery set: CANONIC study cohort (n=181)
% of deaths	7.73%	18.23%	26.52%	35.91%	40.33%
CLIF-C MET 1	0.868	0.844	0.794	0.757	0.744
CLIF-C MET 2	0.875	0.872	0.819	0.791	0.772
CLIF-C ACLF score	0.757*†	0.793†	0.760†	0.734	0.720†
MELDNa score	0.671*†‡	0.711*†‡	0.696*†‡	0.707†	0.703†
Validation set: PREDICT study cohort (n=109)
% of deaths	4.59%	16.51%	27.52%	34.86%	37.61%
CLIF-C MET 1	0.914	0.724	0.717	0.714	0.714
CLIF-C MET 2	0.892	0.730	0.733	0.722	0.721
CLIF-C ACLF score	0.879	0.763	0.728	0.683†	0.670*†
MELDNa score	0.601*†‡	0.592*†‡	0.644*†‡	0.649*†	0.643*†
AD-no ACLF patients
Discovery set: CANONIC study cohort (n=650)
% of deaths	0.92%	2.31%	4.77%	9.85%	12.46%
CLIF-C MET 1	0.916	0.871	0.781	0.764	0.741
CLIF-C MET 2	0.942	0.895	0.787	0.750	0.729
CLIF-C AD score	0.768*†	0.769*†	0.752	0.733	0.736
MELDNa score	0.715*†	0.686*†‡	0.693*†‡	0.723	0.723
Validation set: PREDICT study cohort (n=742)
% of deaths	0.67%	2.83%	6.06%	12.40%	15.36%
CLIF-C MET 1	0.928	0.841	0.769	0.769	0.760
CLIF-C MET 2	0.945	0.864	0.781	0.769	0.759
CLIF-C AD score	0.839*†	0.798†	0.723	0.715	0.707
MELDNa score	0.757*†‡	0.726*†‡	0.694*†	0.668*†	0.660*†‡

*P value <0.01 compared to the metabolomic model 1 for differences larger than 0.05.
†P value <0.01 compared to the metabolomic model 2 for differences larger than 0.05.
‡P value <0.01 compared to the CLIF-C ACLF/CLIF-C AD score for differences larger than 0.05.
ACLF, acute-on-chronic liver failure; AD, acutely decompensated cirrhosis; CLIF-C ACLF, Chronic Liver Failure Consortium ACLF.